The Oxfordshire & Buckinghamshire Market Update for High-Value Homes Quarter Three 2026

“The Summer Market Is Gathering Some Strong Momentum…But Could A New PM and More Political Uncertainty Put The Brakes On?”

Good morning,

Welcome to your Q3 2026 market update for Oxfordshire & Buckinghamshire and surrounding areas.

Pop the kettle on, grab your favourite biscuit, settle into your usual chair and let's have a proper catch-up. We’ll look at what's been happening in the UK and around the globe, and how it impacts the high-value home property market here in Oxfordshire & Buckinghamshire and the surrounding areas. I’ll try not to mention the football. But, why so defensive? Anyway…

Here’s what in this edition of the high-value home update for this quarter:

• What actually happened in Q2?

• How a Burnham Government could affect the property market

• Interest rates, and where they're likely to head next

• Absolutely no mention of Thomas Tuchel and his tactics

• And, of course, our predictions for the rest of the year

What happened in Q2?

When I sat down to write the last update, the Oxfordshire & Buckinghamshire property market felt like it was standing at a crossroads.

The early months of the year had been encouraging. Buyers were returning, mortgage rates were easing and confidence seemed to be creeping back into the market. Then, in March, the Iran War began. Almost overnight, uncertainty returned.

Fuel prices jumped, mortgage lenders reacted and all the momentum that was building disappeared.

At the time, I suggested that if stability returned quickly, the impact on the Oxfordshire & Buckinghamshire property market would probably be fairly limited. Unfortunately, we had many false dawns, and stability didn’t come as quickly as I’d expected, or hoped. But it does feel as though we’re now finally moving back towards calmer waters.

After a quiet May; June and July (and now August) have been solid. Nothing extraordinary, but certainly a positive step, with 2-week long periods of a high offer and sale activity, followed by quieter weeks. Slowly, but surely, it appears a little bit of confidence and momentum is returning.

Whilst I'm not about to declare the high-value home market ‘fixed’, I do think we're seeing some genuinely encouraging signs for the rest of 2026 and into 2027.

How a Burnham Government could affect the property market

The main political news right now, which is relevant here, is that the UK has a new Prime Minister. Sir Keir Starmer announced that he would step down, and Andy Burnham has now taken over.

New PMs often like to make a splash when they first come into power, and Burnham recently said there may be “some room” for movement on tax.

Downwards, we can hope…

His first move on day two was to remove VAT on energy bills to ‘help with the cost of living’. Potentially more performative than a substantial change, averaging a £45 annual saving per household. Ironically, the nsavings will generally be higher for larger properties.

For Oxfordshire & Buckinghamshire, there are three areas we'll be watching closely under the new government:

1. Further taxation of second homes

This is probably the biggest concern for the Oxfordshire & Buckinghamshire and surrounding areas.

Since becoming Prime Minister, Andy Burnham has continued to emphasise housing affordability and prioritising homes for local residents. While the government hasn't yet published detailed national proposals specifically targeting second homes, I wouldn't be surprised to see further measures aimed at properties that sit empty for large parts of the year. That could mean higher Council Tax premiums, additional Stamp Duty surcharges, greater powers for local authorities, or further restrictions on converting homes into holiday accommodation.

My view?

The £500,000 to £1.5 million second-home market is likely to be the most exposed, adding pressure to an already-challenging section of the market. The £2 million-plus lifestyle market, where buyers tend to be less sensitive to additional taxation, will undoubtedly prove more resilient.

2. Council Tax and Stamp Duty reform

Council Tax remains based on 1991 property valuations, making it an obvious candidate for future reform. One idea that has been debated over the years is a property value tax, where annual charges are linked more closely to a home's current market value.

Which sounds simple enough until you get to a unique Oxfordshire & Buckinghamshire property and ask the obvious question: who decides what it's worth?

Stamp Duty is another area that could change. Whether that's through higher rates on second homes, a restructuring of the bands, or further surcharges for investment properties, transaction taxes remain one of the easiest ways for governments to raise revenue from the housing market. Any increase would inevitably reduce mobility, discourage investment and make people think twice before moving.

There has also been growing discussion around shifting more of the tax burden onto land and property ownership. If future governments were to introduce a form of land value tax, or increase ongoing taxes on landlords, much of that cost would almost certainly be passed on through higher rents. For many smaller landlords, particularly those already dealing with higher mortgage costs and increased regulation, it could be the final push to leave the sector altogether - reducing the supply of rental homes and placing further upward pressure on rents.

If you’d like a conversation about how this could impact you and your portfolio, reach out to our Lettings Director David at College and County, who can talk you through the implications for you – [email protected]

If reforms along these lines were introduced, the Oxfordshire & Buckinghamshire market would likely feel the impact more than many parts of the UK because of its concentration of high-value homes, second homes and investment properties.

My view?

The affordability impact may be limited for some buyers, but the psychological impact could be much

greater. Buying a second home, or a more expensive primary residence, feels very different when the annual running costs start to become significant. If Stamp Duty were to increase further, it would only add another barrier to moving, reducing transaction levels and making an already challenging market even more challenging.

Shifting more of the tax burden onto landlords seems nonsensical. It may sound like a way of making property investors contribute more, but in reality, many landlords cannot afford to absorb higher costs, so these will either be directly passed on through higher rents, or landlords will just sell their properties.

At a time when rental supply is already under pressure and many landlords are considering leaving the sector, this feels like exactly the wrong direction of travel. As for timing, I don't expect major reform overnight. All eyes will be on the next Budget in October/November. Changes to Stamp Duty could be a headline grabber for the new PM and Chancellor John Healey, but I'd be surprised to see any fundamental overhaul of Council Tax or wider property taxation before 2028 at the earliest, with more significant reforms, if they happen at all, more likely in the next Parliament.

Overall, I'd expect these measures (or even talk of these measures) to support demand for homes valued between £500,000 and £1 million, while placing greater pressure on the market as values increase. This will be especially noticeable in the second-home sector.

3. Other wealth tax reforms

A full wealth tax remains politically difficult, but property wealth has always been an attractive target for governments seeking to raise revenue, whether through changes to Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax or other property-related taxes – as discussed above.

My view?

Whether any of these measures ultimately come into force is almost beside the point. The real issue for the property market is uncertainty. Buyers and sellers can adapt to almost any tax system, interest rate or regulation. What they struggle with is not knowing what's coming next. That's why we'll be watching developments closely over the coming months. If history teaches us anything, it's that certainty drives activity. Uncertainty encourages people to sit on their hands.

Interest rates – what’s going to happen next?

CURRENT BANK OF ENGLAND BASE RATE:

3.75% Next updated 17 September 2026 – prediction: No

change - 3.75%

For much of the last two years, falling interest rates have been expected to provide a welcome boost to the housing market. Whilst the Bank of England has made a number of cuts, it has remained cautious, with inflation proving more persistent than many economists first expected.

The general expectation is that we'll continue to see interest rates edge down over the next 12 months, rather than any dramatic reductions. And with that, we should see a slow improvement of property market confidence.

The good news is that mortgage lenders don't simply wait for the Bank of England to act. Fixed-rate mortgage pricing is based on future expectations, so competition between lenders has already seen mortgage products become increasingly attractive.

For our market here and surrounding areas, interest rates don’t tend to deter buyers looking at the £1 million-plus property market. But low interest rates make good headlines, and add momentum to the market, bringing new buyers and helping more buyers become proceedable.

Assuming we avoid any major economic surprises or political announcements (and having written around 30 of these letters now, I know that's a fairly brave assumption), I'd expect the higher-value market to continue improving steadily, with hot periods becoming slightly longer.

Exceptional homes that are high specification and beautifully presented always attract high interest, and none of these changes will really affect this.

Insider Insights from Property Markets around the UK

We’re lucky enough to speak regularly with some very smart agency owners around the country, so I asked a few of them what they’re seeing in their own higher-value markets. Different locations, different buyers, different price points, but there are some useful patterns coming through.

“Leeds remains a price-sensitive market, with high stock levels creating plenty of competition for sellers. Buyers have more choice and are taking a considered approach, so getting the price and presentation right from the outset is essential. Encouragingly, we are beginning to see more buyers return to the market, with both viewing levels and offers increasing. There is still strong demand for the right homes, but sellers need to be realistic and well positioned to stand out.”

Claire Roberts, Rutley Clark, Leeds

"The Chester market feels balanced and increasingly positive. Activity remains strongest up to around £750,000, but we've also seen renewed confidence at the upper end, with cash buyers and lifestyle purchasers returning after a quieter spring. Buyers are taking their time, yet when quality homes are priced correctly, they continue to sell well. The market feels healthier than it did just a few months ago."

John & Lisa Curran, Currans Unique Homes, Chester

"Buyer confidence has strengthened noticeably over recent months, particularly across the premium market. Homes that are launched with exceptional presentation, targeted marketing and realistic pricing are generating excellent engagement. While buyers remain discerning, there's a renewed willingness to commit, especially where homes offer something unique. It feels like a market that's steadily rebuilding momentum."

Alex Pittaway & Olivia Thompson, Pittaway Thompson, Kenilworth

"London's market has settled into a more confident rhythm as we move through the summer. Political headlines continue to create background noise, but buyers appear increasingly focused on their own plans rather than waiting for perfect conditions. Prime homes that are priced sensibly are attracting competitive interest, particularly from cash and international buyers. Overall, the market feels more resilient and optimistic than it did earlier this year."

Georges Verdis, London Executive, Marylebone

“The Sussex market is rewarding sellers who price realistically. With stock at its highest level in eleven years, buyers have more choice, making accurate pricing and strong presentation essential. Caution among first-time buyers and second steppers is slowing some chains, but well-positioned homes are still selling. The market is not dead, simply more considered, and sellers who respond sensibly are giving themselves the best chance of moving.”

Ana & Paul, Bees Homes, Polegate

My predictions for the rest of the year

The rest of the year is likely to be all about Andy. Not from Toy Story, but the new Prime Minister. He is going to want to make headlines, and try to be clearly different to his predecessor. Buckle in for the Budget.

Side note – can you believe the first Toy Story came out in 1995?

Having said that, history shows us that property markets are remarkably resilient. They dislike uncertainty, but they adapt quickly once a ‘new normal’ emerges. Sorry to bring that term back.

Whilst there’s a little bit of political disruption, and plenty of noise around taxation, second homes and property reform, very little has actually changed yet. Buyers are still buying, sellers are still selling, and the fundamentals that make Oxfordshire & Buckinghamshire such a desirable place to own a home remain firmly intact.

What we are seeing right now is a market slowly but surely building momentum. Buyers have plenty of choice and are taking longer to make decisions, but there are lots of them, and deals are being made with increasing frequency.

There is, and hopefully always will be, significant demand for exceptional homes with high specification. The shortage of genuinely high-quality homes coming to market continues to underpin values across much of Oxfordshire & Buckinghamshire, particularly in the £500,000 to £1.25 million range where demand remains strongest.

As confidence improves and interest rates gradually soften, I expect momentum to build steadily through the remainder of the year. And if we can get a little more certainty, 2027 could be the year the market properly finds its feet again. I’m feeling cautiously confident. Please don’t ruin that, Andy (again, not from Toy Story).

Thinking of selling? Here's what we suggest...

If you’re prepared to be patient, listen to good advice and get the launch right, then go for it – it might be a little sticky, but there’s no need to be really defensive, like Thomas Tuchel was in the last 25 minutes v Argentina. Ok – I couldn’t resist. What was he doing?!

Anyway…

Don’t make decisions based on newspaper headlines or social media speculation. Make them based on good advice and a clear understanding of your options.

If this update leaves you with questions about your home, its value, or your future plans, let's talk it through.

A chat over a cup of tea or coffee remains our favourite way to get to know you, your home and your plans for the future.

You might feel you'd be wasting our time, especially if you're not planning to move anytime soon. The reality is quite the opposite. These early conversations are often the most valuable, helping homeowners understand their position long before any major decisions need to be made.

It's our job, and a responsibility we take seriously, to help owners of exceptional homes across Oxfordshire & Buckinghamshire and surrounding areas make informed decisions. Whether you're considering a move next month, next year, or simply want to understand where your property sits in today's market, we're here to help.

Three ways to arrange a conversation or home visit:

1.Email me directly at [email protected]

2.Text or WhatsApp me on 07833 246456

3.Call the team on 01844 399292

If we don't hear from you before then, we'll be back in touch with our next market update in a few months' time.

Until then, here's to a stable market, sensible politics, attacking football (my last comment I promise) and plenty of motivated buyers!

Warmly,

Darren Hunt MNAEA

Proud Founder of Hunt Residential